Trade Specialization Dynamics in a Small Open Resource-Based Developing Economy: Empirical Evidence from Botswana

Tebogo Seleka

The International Trade Journal, 2024, vol. 38, issue 6, 588-612

Abstract: We analyze trade specialization dynamics in Botswana, applying the Galtonian regression and Markov matrix on the Lafay index for the period of 1998 to 2019. Galtonian regressions reveal de-specialization – Botswana gained a comparative advantage in industries for which it was initially not specialized and became less competitive in industries for which it was initially specialized. The industry hierarchy was altered only slightly due to persistence in trade specialization patterns. The Markov matrix reveals stronger upward industry mobility than downward industry mobility. De-specialization suggests slow-paced economic diversification, induced by import substitution in de-specialized industries, rather than by an expanding export base.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/08853908.2024.2359947

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