Optimal Legislative County Clustering in North Carolina

Daniel Carter, Zach Hunter, Dan Teague, Gregory Herschlag and Jonathan Mattingly

Statistics and Public Policy, 2020, vol. 7, issue 1, 19-29

Abstract: North Carolina’s constitution requires that state legislative districts should not split counties. However, counties must be split to comply with the “one person, one vote” mandate of the U.S. Supreme Court. Given that counties must be split, the North Carolina legislature and the courts have provided guidelines that seek to reduce counties split across districts while also complying with the “one person, one vote” criterion. Under these guidelines, the counties are separated into clusters; each cluster contains a specified number of districts and that are drawn independent from other clusters. The primary goal of this work is to develop, present, and publicly release an algorithm to optimally cluster counties according to the guidelines set by the court in 2015. We use this tool to investigate the optimality and uniqueness of the enacted clusters under the 2017 redistricting process. We verify that the enacted clusters are optimal, but find other optimal choices. We emphasize that the tool we provide lists all possible optimal county clusterings. We also explore the stability of clustering under changing statewide populations and project what the county clusters may look like in the next redistricting cycle beginning in 2020/2021. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1080/2330443X.2020.1748552

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