Testing for Contagion/Diffusion of Terrorism in State Dyads

Christina Cliff and Andrew First

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 2013, vol. 36, issue 4, 292-314

Abstract: This article tests the application of contagion/diffusion theories of political violence to terrorist activity. In order to apply theories of contagion/diffusion to terrorism, Granger causality analysis of terrorist activity in three state dyads—Lebanon–Israel, Peru–Colombia, India–Pakistan—is conducted. Within each dyad, terrorist activities in general and specific terrorist tactics in particular are analyzed. The test results show that there are correlations of terrorist events that indicate evidence of contagion and/or diffusion in all three dyads tested, although the patterns of contagion/diffusion are different for each dyad.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/1057610X.2013.763599

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