Target Them with What? Why States Choose Different COIN Strategies for Different Insurgent Organizations

Victor Asal, Daren Fisher and Joe Young

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 2023, vol. 46, issue 9, 1766-1783

Abstract: Why do some governments negotiate with insurgent organizations while others use force? This study examines the factors that influence these strategic government approaches to insurgencies using an original data set of state actions toward 140 insurgent groups between 1998 and 2012. We develop a simple model to explain government policy choice and test on these original data. After accounting for ideological differences and insurgent organization alliances, our findings suggest that the size of the insurgent group, the extent of previous lethal violence, and previous government decisions all influence government selection of conciliatory, repressive, mixed, and non-response strategies. We conclude by discussing the implications for how governments make counterterrorism/counterinsurgency strategy.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/1057610X.2020.1862952

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