From Rebelling to Ruling: Insurgent Victory and State Capture in Africa

Christopher Day and Michael Woldemariam

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 2024, vol. 47, issue 5, 476-501

Abstract: Political order following rebel victory in civil wars has seen remarkable variation. While some rebellions transform their victories into durable regimes, others do not. This article develops a typological framework to assess the ability, and inability, of victorious rebellions to capture the state after overthrowing incumbents, with a focus on Africa. We argue that these outcomes – state capture, failed state capture, or mixed – depend on two key dimensions of political and military centralization before victory: (1) the distribution of power between rebel organizations participating in the civil war and (2) the communal structure within them.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/1057610X.2021.1980978

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