Is the U.S. Heading for a Civil War? Scenarios for 2024-25

Stuart J. Kaufman

Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 2025, vol. 48, issue 8, 859-887

Abstract: This article applies symbolic politics theory to assess the risk of a new civil war in the U.S., finding that all of the factors making civil war likely are currently present. Narratives promoting hostility toward the other party are prominent among Republicans and Democrats alike, as are hostile predispositions and hostile feelings toward the other party. The Republican Party’s rejection of Trump’s 2020 election loss and its links to the January 6 coup attempt and to militia groups position it to organize a more violent insurrection in a scenario in which Trump is again the unsuccessful presidential nominee in 2024.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/1057610X.2022.2137892

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