The role of actively open-minded thinking and control orientation in venture capital investment outcomes

Randy Stein, Tovin Schwartz and Denis Iurchenko

Venture Capital, 2026, vol. 28, issue 1, 35-61

Abstract: Research has started to show how predictive and control strategies can each be effective in investment and entrepreneurial decisions. We bridge effectuation theory with theory on Actively-Open Minded Thinking (AOT), a construct tapping analytical, debiased reasoning skills and, in a study of venture capital investors, we support a novel hypothesis that AOT and control orientation have a complimentary role in predicting success. When either AOT or control orientation, but not both, is relatively high, investors report more homerun exits. We contribute to the effectuation literature by suggesting that AOT is a type of predictive logic that captures the benefits of prediction not previously captured by conceptualizations. Additionally, while the venture capital literature has previously stressed that venture capitalists tend to be prediction oriented, we show that control orientation can also be linked to success.

Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1080/13691066.2024.2365252

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