Is Disagreement a Good Proxy for Inflation Uncertainty? Evidence from Turkey

Timur Hulagu and Saygin Sahinoz
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Saygin Cevik

Central Bank Review, 2012, vol. 12, issue 1, 53-62

Abstract: This study uses inflation expectation errors to measure inflation uncertainty in Turkey by analyzing the CBRT Survey of Expectations data and investigates whether the disagreement among the survey participants can be used as a proxy for inflation uncertainty. Results reveal the importance of the inflation targeting regime. In particular, disagreement seems to be a good proxy for inflation uncertainty for the 2001-2006 period while this relationship vanishes with the full-fledged inflation targeting regime after 2006.

Keywords: Inflation; Uncertainty; Disagreement; Survey data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C82 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:12:y:2012:i:1:p:53-62

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