Tests of Rationality in Turkish Foreign Exchange Market

Neslihan Topbas
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Neslihan Turguttopbas

Central Bank Review, 2014, vol. 14, issue 2, 65-78

Abstract: The rationality of expectations has been tested in many foreign exchange markets using survey data. This study is aimed at gaining empirical insights about the expectations of market participants in the Turkish foreign exchange market. Using survey data provided by Central Bank of Turkey on the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the US dollar, it is determined that the mean of expectations of market participants for one year and one month ahead were higher than the mean of actual depreciation. The analysis resulted in rejection of the popular test for forward exchange rate unbiasedness in predicting the future spot exchange rate. Another test of rationality has also been checked and the result has been rejection as well, which can be interpreted that the forward premium contains additional information for exchange rate forecasts.

Keywords: Forward exchange rate; Spot exchange rate; Foreign exchange market; Survey data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 F31 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:14:y:2014:i:2:p:65-78

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