Time varying determinants of bond flows to emerging markets

Yasemin Erduman and Neslihan Kaya
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Yasemin Barlas

Central Bank Review, 2016, vol. 16, issue 2, 65-72

Abstract: This paper investigates the time varying nature of the determinants of bond flows with a focus on the global financial crisis period. We estimate a time varying regression model using Bayesian estimation methods, where the posterior distribution is approximated by Gibbs sampling algorithm. Our findings suggest that the interest rate differential is the most significant pull factor of portfolio bond flows, along with the inflation rate, while the growth rate does not play a significant role. Among the push factors, global liquidity is the most important driver of bond flows. It matters the most, when unconventional monetary easing policies were first announced; and its importance as a determinant of portfolio bond flows decreases over time, starting with the Eurozone crisis, and diminishes with the tapering talk. Global risk appetite and the risk perception towards the emerging countries also have relatively small and stable significant effects on bond flows.

Keywords: Capital flows; Pull factors; Push factors; Emerging markets; Bayesian estimation; Gibbs sampling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F21 F32 G11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:16:y:2016:i:2:p:65-72

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