What do we really know about the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Facts versus myths? Trying to understand social expectations

Joanna Dzialo (), Bogna Gawronska-Nowak and Ziemowit Stanczyk
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Joanna Dzialo: Lazarski University, Department of Economics, Warsaw, Poland
Bogna Gawronska-Nowak: Lazarski University, Department of Economics, Warsaw, Poland
Ziemowit Stanczyk: Institute for Socio-Economic Enquiries, Warsaw, Poland

International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), 2017, vol. 11, issue 1, 52-60

Abstract: Purpose: The purpose of this work is to confront the social expectations of the TTIP, and how it effects the so-called "expert knowledge". Defining a mismatch between the social expectations and expert knowledge may contribute to better understanding of the controversies related to the TTIP. Using the NAFTA case study, we investigate if there is a significant gap between ex-ante and ex-post analysis of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Design/methodology/approach: We rely on Eurobarometer (2014, 2015) and Bertelsmann Foundation (2016) surveys to describe the TTIP-related social expectations. We make a critical overview of the global CGE models, which are the main source of ex-ante estimations of TTIP macro effects. We also use the NAFTA case study as a TTIP reference point that allows for a comparison of ex-ante with ex-post analysis results. Findings: Social expectations regarding the economic effects of the TTIP are ambiguous on both sides of the Atlantic. The CGE models have many limiting assumptions. They are, however, a useful tool for exploring the effects of the TTIP, bearing in mind all restrictions and limitations of ex-ante analyses. The NAFTA case study indicates that most ex-ante models tend to overestimate benefits and underestimate disadvantages arising from free trade. Research limitations/implications: Many such surveys have been conducted recently. The results should be developed upon, for a more detailed, country-specific and time variant understanding of possible sources of social conflicts in the context of the TTIP (or FTA) implementation. Originality/value: The analysis tends to prove the existence of a mismatch between social and expert knowledge on the TTIP, which may result in generating social conflicts. A practical and original outcome of our work is a well-supported recommendation to make the TTIP realistic effects much more transparent to the public, which should be important to those supporting the TTIP (and generally speaking FTA).

Keywords: Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership; social expectations towards TTIP; CGE models; macroeconomic effects of TTIP; NAFTA agreement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 K12 K22 K3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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