China’s trade relations with Central Asia: an empirical analysis based on the trade gravity model

Ye Maoqing

GREEN ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT, 2025, vol. 3, issue 9

Abstract: This study explores the relationships between China's trade volume with Central Asian countries and variousfactors such as the economic scales of both sides, population sizes, geographical distances, regional trade agreements,and national institutions. By constructing a trade gravity model, an in-depth empirical analysis of China's trade relationswith Central Asia is conducted. The research results show that the expansion of economic scale significantly promotesbilateral trade and is one of the key factors driving trade growth. Geographical distance increases trade costs and inhibitstrade exchanges. Regional trade agreements effectively promote the expansion of bilateral trade volume by reducingtrade barriers and improving trade facilitation. Good institutional quality helps create a stable and fair trade environmentand enhances the enthusiasm of enterprises to engage in trade activities. According to the measurement results of tradepotential, there are differences in the trade potential between China and different Central Asian countries. The tradepotential is relatively large with countries rich in energy resources and relatively developed economies, but there is alsoroom for trade improvement with some countries with smaller economic scales and relatively weak infrastructure. Inaddition, factors such as culture, politics, and the global economic situation also affect China's trade relations with CentralAsia to varying degrees

Keywords: China; Central Asia; trade gravity model; bilateral trade; economic scale; population size; geographical distance; regional trade agreements; institutional quality; Belt and Road Initiative; trade potential; infrastructure; energy cooperation; cultural factors; political stability; globalization. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:teu:ged000:v:3:y:2025:i:9:id:7027

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17217363

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