SURXONDARYO VILOYATIDA ULGURJI SAVDO HAJMI KO‘RSATKICHLARINI ARIMA MODELI YORDAMIDA PROGNOZLASHTIRISH

Sohiba Turopova

GREEN ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT, 2026, vol. 4, issue 2

Abstract: Mazkur maqolada Surxondaryo viloyatida ulgurji savdo hajmining vaqt bo‘yicha o‘zgarishi hamda uniprognozlash masalalari tahlil qilingan. Tadqiqotda 2010–2024-yillar ma’lumotlari asosida vaqt qatorlari tahlili amalgaoshirilib, ARIMA modeli yordamida iqtisodiy ko‘rsatkichlarning kelgusi davr uchun prognoz qiymatlari aniqlangan. Vaqtqatorining statsionarligi kengaytirilgan Dikkey–Fuller testi orqali tekshirildi va mos ARIMA(2,2,0) modeli tanlandi. Olingannatijalar 2025–2028-yillar uchun ulgurji savdo hajmining barqaror o‘sish tendensiyasini ko‘rsatadi. Tadqiqot natijalarihududiy savdo tizimini rivojlantirish va iqtisodiy rejalashtirish jarayonlarida muhim amaliy ahamiyat kasb etadi.

Keywords: ulgurji savdo; vaqt qatorlari; ARIMA modeli; prognozlash; statsionarlik; Dikkey–Fuller testi; iqtisodiy tahlil; Surxondaryo viloyati (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:teu:ged000:v:4:y:2026:i:2:id:9184

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18628916

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