SURXONDARYO VILOYATIDA AHOLI JON BOSHIGA CHAKANA SAVDO AYLANMASI HAJMI KO‘RSATKICHLARINI ARIMA MODELI YORDAMIDA PROGNOZLASHTIRISH

Shahnoza Qudratova

GREEN ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT, 2026, vol. 4, issue 2

Abstract: Mazkur maqolada Surxondaryo viloyatida aholi jon boshiga chakana savdo aylanmasi hajmining vaqtbo‘yicha o‘zgarishi hamda uni prognozlash masalalari tahlil qilingan. Tadqiqotda 2010–2024-yillar ma’lumotlari asosidavaqt qatorlari tahlili amalga oshirilib, ARIMA modeli yordamida iqtisodiy ko‘rsatkichlarning kelgusi davr uchun prognozqiymatlari aniqlangan. Vaqt qatorining statsionarligi kengaytirilgan Dikkey–Fuller (ADF) testi orqali tekshirildi hamdamos ARIMA (0,2,1) modeli tanlandi. Olingan natijalar 2025–2028-yillar uchun chakana savdo aylanmasining barqaroro‘sish tendensiyasini ko‘rsatadi. Tadqiqot natijalari hududiy savdo tizimini yanada rivojlantirish va iqtisodiy rejalashtirishjarayonlarida muhim amaliy ahamiyat kasb etadi

Keywords: chakana savdo aylanmasi; vaqt qatorlari; ARIMA modeli; prognozlash; statsionarlik; Dikkey–Fuller testi; iqtisodiy tahlil; Surxondaryo viloyati. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:teu:ged000:v:4:y:2026:i:2:id:9192

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18629866

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