BUDJET TIZIMIDA JISMONIY SHAXSLARDAN UNDIRILADIGAN SOLIQ TUSHUMLARINI PROGNOZLASHTIRISHNING EKONOMETRIK YONDASHUVLARI

Shavkat Babayev

GREEN ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT, 2026, vol. 4, issue 4

Abstract: Ushbu maqolada O‘zbekiston Respublikasi budjet tizimida jismoniy shaxslardan undiriladigan soliqtushumlarini prognoz qilishning nazariy va metodologik masalalari empirik asosda tahlil qilingan. 2020–2026-yillardavomida jismoniy shaxslardan olinadigan daromad solig‘i (JShDS) tushumlarining dinamikasi ekonometrik metodlar,jumladan, OLS regressiya, Pirson korrelyatsiya tahlili va vaqt qatorlari tahlili yordamida o‘rganildi. Tadqiqot natijalarigako‘ra, JShDS tushumlari 2020-yildagi 15,1 trln so‘mdan 2026-yilda 52,0 trln so‘mga (CAGR = 22,9%) oshgan bo‘lsa-da,uning YaIMga nisbatan ulushi (~2,6%) OECD davlatlari o‘rtacha ko‘rsatkichidan (8,4%) sezilarli darajada pastligi aniqlandi.Ekonometrik model yuqori ishonchlilikni namoyon etdi: R² = 0,9976, korrelyatsiya koeffitsiyenti r = 0,984 (p

Keywords: budjet tizimi; jismoniy shaxslardan olinadigan daromad solig‘i; soliq tushumlari; soliq prognozi; ekonometrik tahlil; OLS regressiya; Tax Effort Index; fiskal multiplikator; raqamlashtirish; mashinali ta’lim. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:teu:ged000:v:4:y:2026:i:4:id:10468

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20258021

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