Demand Forecast and Elasticities Estimation of Public Transport

Antonio García-Ferrer, Marcos Bujosa, Aránzazu de Juan and Pilar Poncela

Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 2006, vol. 40, issue 1, 45-67

Abstract: This paper is related to the choice of alternative types of public transport modes and its incidence in the Madrid Metropolitan Area. When planning transport facilities, two conditions are needed: efficient estimation of the users' response to changes in prices and in the characteristics of the services; and reliable predictions of demand. These two conditions are the main objectives of this paper. Given a monthly database, the authors address the first objective using a causal econometric model. As a baseline for forecasting comparisons, they also use new variants of univariate unobserved components models. Forecasting evaluation is based on a variety of accuracy measures to avoid misleading conclusions. © 2006 LSE and the University of Bath

Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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