 Potential Output in Asia: Some Forward-Looking ScenariosAndrew Burns () Asian Development Review, 2016, vol. 33, issue 2, 28-55 Abstract: This paper presents estimates of potential output growth for a sample of 26 Asian economies and projects potential output growth through 2040 under several scenarios. Results suggest that in the absence of further capital deepening, and assuming continued total factor productivity growth at recent rates, potential output growth across economies could slow from a median of 4.6% during 2010–2015 to 2.7% between 2035 and 2040. Demographic trends and an assumed stabilization in capital–output ratios account for most of the slowing. Much better outcomes are possible if trends are supported by policy. Better total factor productivity growth could raise potential output by between 11% and 24% by 2040, while lower unemployment and higher participation rates could boost potential output by 10% or more in some South Asian economies. An improved investment climate could add between 6% and 10% to potential output in most economies, while accelerating structural convergence (moving labor from lower to higher productivity sectors) could raise potential output by 10% or more in half of the examined countries. Keywords: cross-economy growth comparisons; potential output; total factor productivity; sectoral change (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tpr:adbadr:v:33:y:2016:i:2:p:28-55 Access Statistics for this article Asian Development Review is currently edited by Yasuyuki Sawada and Naoyuki Yoshino More articles in Asian Development Review from MIT Press |
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