Rethinking “Economic Fundamentals” in an Era of Global Physical Shocks: Insights from the Philippines Experience with COVID-19

Toby Melissa C. Monsod and Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista
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Toby Melissa C. Monsod: University of the Philippines School of Economics Diliman, Quezon City, 1101 Philippines

Asian Economic Papers, 2021, vol. 20, issue 1, 109-140

Abstract: Having “strong macroeconomic fundamentals,” as the Philippines supposedly did pre-COVID-19, matters much less (if at all), in and of itself, to economic outcomes in the context of a physical shock. Using a model for 21 countries including ASEAN+3, developing East Asia and South Asia, as well as Australia and New Zealand to explain the difference in actual 2019 and forecasted 2020 GDP growth, we find that, ceteris paribus

Date: 2021
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