The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

Warwick McKibbin and Roshen Fernando

Asian Economic Papers, 2021, vol. 20, issue 2, 1-30

Abstract: COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain, making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. This paper explores seven plausible scenarios of COVID-19 and the macroeconomic outcomes using a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The results demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. Economic costs could be significantly avoided with greater investment in public health systems in all economies, particularly in economies where health care systems are less developed and population density is high.

Date: 2021
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https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00796

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Working Paper: The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios (2020)
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