Teacher Expectations Matter

Nicholas Papageorge, Seth Gershenson and Kyung Min Kang
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Seth Gershenson: American University and IZA
Kyung Min Kang: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020, vol. 102, issue 2, 234-251

Abstract: Abstract We show that tenth-grade teacher expectations affect students' likelihood of college completion. Our approach leverages a unique feature of a nationally representative dataset: two teachers provided their educational expectations for each student. Identification exploits teacher disagreements about the same student, an idea we formalize using a measurement error model. We estimate an elasticity of college completion with respect to teachers' expectations of 0.12. On average, teachers are overly optimistic, though white teachers are less so with black students. More accurate beliefs are counterproductive if there are returns to optimism or sociodemographic gaps in optimism. We find evidence of both.

Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Teacher Expectations Matter (2018)
Working Paper: Teacher Expectations Matter (2016)
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