Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature across U.S. Climate Regions

Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller and David Molitor
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Nolan H. Miller: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2021, vol. 103, issue 4, 740-753

Abstract: We estimate how the mortality effects of temperature vary across U.S. climate regions to assess local and national damages from projected climate change. Using 22 years of Medicare data, we find that both cold and hot days increase mortality. However, hot days are less deadly in warm places while cold days are less deadly in cool places. Incorporating this heterogeneity into end-of-century climate change assessments reverses the conventional wisdom on climate damage incidence: cold places bear more, not less, of the mortality burden. Allowing places to adapt to their future climate substantially reduces the estimated mortality effects of climate change.

Date: 2021
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https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00936

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Working Paper: Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions (2017)
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