Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices

Knut Are Aastveit, Hilde Bjørnland () and Jamie Cross

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2023, vol. 105, issue 3, 733-743

Abstract: Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market. We establish this result using a structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand and supply shocks through real oil prices to both expected and actual inflation. We demonstrate that economic activity shocks have a significantly longer-lasting effect on inflation expectations and actual inflation than other types of real oil price shocks, and resolve disagreements around the role of oil prices in explaining the missing deflation puzzle of the Great Recession.

Date: 2023
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https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01073
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Related works:
Working Paper: Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices (2020)
Working Paper: Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices (2020)
Working Paper: Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices (2020)
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