Sources of Output Fluctuations during the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression

Stephen Cecchetti and Georgios Karras

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1994, vol. 76, issue 1, 80-102

Abstract: This paper decomposes output fluctuations during the 1913 to 1940 period into components resulting from aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks. We estimate a number of structural models, all of which yield qualitatively similar results. While identification is normally achieved by assuming that aggregate demand shocks have no long-run real effects, we also estimate models that allow demand shocks to permanently affect output. Our findings support the following three conclusions: (1) there was a large negative aggregate demand shock in November 1929, immediately after the stock market crash; (2) aggregate demand shocks are largely responsible for the decline in output through mid-1931; and (3) beginning in mid-1931 there is an aggregate supply collapse that coincides with the onset of severe bank panics. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

Date: 1994
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (31)

Downloads: (external link)
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0034-6535%2819940 ... 0.CO%3B2-G&origin=bc full text (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

Related works:
Working Paper: Sources of Output Fluctuations During the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression (1992)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tpr:restat:v:76:y:1994:i:1:p:80-102

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://mitpressjour ... rnal/?issn=0034-6535

Access Statistics for this article

The Review of Economics and Statistics is currently edited by Pierre Azoulay, Olivier Coibion, Will Dobbie, Raymond Fisman, Benjamin R. Handel, Brian A. Jacob, Kareen Rozen, Xiaoxia Shi, Tavneet Suri and Yi Xu

More articles in The Review of Economics and Statistics from MIT Press
Bibliographic data for series maintained by The MIT Press ().