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A Stochastic Model of Superstardom: An Application of the Yule Distribution

Kee H Chung and Raymond Cox

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1994, vol. 76, issue 4, 771-75

Abstract: This study employs a stochastic model developed by G. Udny Yule and Herbert A. Simon as the probability mechanism underlying the consumer's choice of artistic products and predicts that artistic outputs will be concentrated among a few lucky individuals. We find that the probability distribution implied by the stochastic model provides an excellent description of the empirical data in the popular music industry, suggesting that the stochastic model may represent the process generating the superstar phenomenon. Because the stochastic model does not require differential talents among individuals, our empirical results support the notion that the superstar phenomenon could exist among individuals with equal talent. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

Date: 1994
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The Review of Economics and Statistics is currently edited by Pierre Azoulay, Olivier Coibion, Will Dobbie, Raymond Fisman, Benjamin R. Handel, Brian A. Jacob, Kareen Rozen, Xiaoxia Shi, Tavneet Suri and Yi Xu

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