Modeling Nonlinearity of Business Cycles: Choosing Between the CDR and STAR Models

Dennis Jansen and Wankeun Oh

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1999, vol. 81, issue 2, 344-349

Abstract: Nonlinear modeling has become popular in applied macroeconomics. Successful attempts include Beaudry and Koop's CDR (current depth of the recession) model of real GNP, and various STAR (smooth transition autoregression) models of industrial production. However, these models have not been directly compared. We compare CDR and STAR models of U.S. real GNP and industrial production. We find (i) within sample, the CDR model fits slightly better than the STAR model; (ii) out of sample, the CDR model forecasts better than the STAR model; and (iii) the CDR model generates very different dynamics than the STAR model. © 1999 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Date: 1999
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/rest.1999.81.2.344 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tpr:restat:v:81:y:1999:i:2:p:344-349

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://mitpressjour ... rnal/?issn=0034-6535

Access Statistics for this article

The Review of Economics and Statistics is currently edited by Pierre Azoulay, Olivier Coibion, Will Dobbie, Raymond Fisman, Benjamin R. Handel, Brian A. Jacob, Kareen Rozen, Xiaoxia Shi, Tavneet Suri and Yi Xu

More articles in The Review of Economics and Statistics from MIT Press
Bibliographic data for series maintained by The MIT Press ().