Can Propensity-Score Methods Match the Findings from a Random Assignment Evaluation of Mandatory Welfare-to-Work Programs?

Charles Michalopoulos (), Howard S. Bloom and Carolyn J. Hill
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Howard S. Bloom: MDRC
Carolyn J. Hill: Georgetown Public Policy Institute

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2004, vol. 86, issue 1, 156-179

Abstract: This paper assesses nonexperimental estimators using results from a six-state random assignment study of mandatory welfare-to-work programs. The assessment addresses two questions: which nonexperimental methods provide the most accurate estimates; and do the best methods work well enough to replace random assignment? Three tentative conclusions emerge. Nonexperimental bias was larger in the medium run than in the short run. In-state comparison groups produced less average bias than out-of-state comparison groups. Statistical adjustments did not consistently reduce bias, although some methods reduced the estimated bias in some circumstances and propensity-score methods provided a specification check that eliminated some large biases. 2004 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

JEL-codes: I38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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