The Effect of Long Memory in Volatility on Stock Market Fluctuations
Bent Jesper Christensen () and
Morten Nielsen ()
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2007, vol. 89, issue 4, 684-700
Recent empirical evidence demonstrates the presence of an important long-memory component in realized asset return volatility. We specify and estimate multivariate models for the joint dynamics of stock returns and volatility that allow for long memory in volatility without imposing this property on returns. Asset pricing theory imposes testable cross-equation restrictions on the system that are not rejected in our preferred specifications, which include a strong financial leverage effect. We show that the impact of volatility shocks on stock prices is small and short lived, in spite of a positive risk-return tradeoff and long memory in volatility. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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