Estimating the Effect of the Age Distribution on Cyclical Output Volatility Across the United States

Steven Lugauer

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, vol. 94, issue 4, 896-902

Abstract: I exploit the variation in demographic change across the United States to estimate the relationship between the age distribution in the population and the magnitude of cyclical output volatility. According to panel regression estimates, the relative supply of young workers, or youth share, has a statistically significant effect on the volatility of state-by-state GDP. Moreover, changes to the age distribution can account for up to 58% of the recent reduction in business cycle fluctuations, indicating a critical link between the youth share and output volatility. © 2012 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Keywords: age distribution; business cycles; demographics; United States (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 J10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

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