Opium for the Masses? Conflict-Induced Narcotics Production in Afghanistan

Jo Lind, Karl Ove Moene and Fredik Willumsen
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Fredik Willumsen: University of Oslo

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2014, vol. 96, issue 5, 949-966

Abstract: To explain the rise in Afghan opium production, we explore how rising conflicts change the incentives of farmers. Conflicts make illegal opportunities more profitable as they increase the perceived lawlessness and destroy infrastructure crucial to alternative crops. Exploiting a unique data set, we show that Western hostile casualties, our proxy for conflict, have a strong impact on subsequent local opium production. Using the period after the planting season as a placebo test, we show that conflict has a strong effect before but no effect after planting, indicating causality.

Keywords: narcotics production; afghanistan; conflict; farming (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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Working Paper: Opium for the Masses? Conflict-Induced Narcotics Production in Afghanistan (2009)
Working Paper: Opium for the Masses? Conflict-induced Narcotics Production in Afghanistan (2009)
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