Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles

Yongsung Chang and Sunoong Hwang ()
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Sunoong Hwang: Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET)

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2015, vol. 97, issue 1, 116-133

Abstract: We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle; (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks; (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts. © 2015 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Keywords: U.S. manufacturing; turning points; macroeconomic shocks; industrial phase shifts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B00 E00 L00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles (2011)
Working Paper: Asymmetric Phase Shifts in the U.S. Industrial Production Cycles (2011)
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