Good Volatility, Bad Volatility: Signed Jumps and The Persistence of Volatility
Andrew Patton and
Kevin Sheppard
Additional contact information
Kevin Sheppard: University of Oxford
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2015, vol. 97, issue 3, 683-697
Abstract:
Using estimators of the variation of positive and negative returns (realized semivariances) and high-frequency data for the S&P 500 Index and 105 individual stocks, this paper sheds new light on the predictability of equity price volatility. We show that future volatility is more strongly related to the volatility of past negative returns than to that of positive returns and that the impact of a price jump on volatility depends on the sign of the jump, with negative (positive) jumps leading to higher (lower) future volatility. We show that models exploiting these findings lead to significantly better out-of-sample forecast performance.
Keywords: volatility; trade; market; signed jumps (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 M31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (382)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/REST_a_00503 (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tpr:restat:v:97:y:2015:i:2:p:683-697
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://mitpressjour ... rnal/?issn=0034-6535
Access Statistics for this article
The Review of Economics and Statistics is currently edited by Pierre Azoulay, Olivier Coibion, Will Dobbie, Raymond Fisman, Benjamin R. Handel, Brian A. Jacob, Kareen Rozen, Xiaoxia Shi, Tavneet Suri and Yi Xu
More articles in The Review of Economics and Statistics from MIT Press
Bibliographic data for series maintained by The MIT Press ().