External Shocks, Internal Shots: The Geography of Civil Conflicts

Nicolas Berman () and Mathieu Couttenier

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2015, vol. 97, issue 4, 758-776

Abstract: We use georeferenced information on the location of violent events in sub-Saharan African countries and provide evidence that external income shocks are important determinants of the intensity and geography of civil conflicts. More precisely, we find that (a) the incidence, intensity, and onset of conflicts are generally negatively and significantly correlated with income variations at the local level; (b) this relationship is significantly weaker for the most remote locations; and (c) at the country level, these shocks have an insignificant impact on the overall probability of conflict outbreak but do affect the probability that conflicts start in the most opened regions.

Keywords: conflict; income shocks; international trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 F15 O13 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (115)

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Related works:
Working Paper: External shocks, internal shots: the geography of civil conflicts (2014)
Working Paper: External shocks, internal shots - the geography of civil conflicts (2012)
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