Hidden Dropout: Secondary Education (Unseen) Failure in Pandemic Times

Lorenzo Alderighi, Rosario M. Ballatore and Marco Tonello

Journal of Human Capital, 2026, vol. 20, issue 1, 69 - 99

Abstract: We estimate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on hidden dropout, a new measure indicating failure in achieving the minimum level of skills considered to be adequate for a student getting a high school diploma. We compare two cohorts of students, one affected and the other unaffected by the pandemic, both in a cross-sectional and in a difference-in-differences specification. We find that hidden dropout increases for the exposed cohort by 6.5–8.7 percentage points. The effect is mainly driven by the transition into hidden dropout status, and it is stronger for students with lower prior achievement, from poorer families, and for immigrants.

Date: 2026
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Related works:
Working Paper: Hidden drop-outs: secondary education (unseen) failure in pandemic times (2023)
Working Paper: Hidden drop-out: Secondary education (unseen) failure in pandemic times (2023)
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