College and Life-Cycle Earnings Inequality
Lawrence Costa
Journal of Human Capital, 2026, vol. 20, issue 3, 462 - 500
Abstract:
Has a rising college earnings premium contributed to increased earnings inequality over the past 50 years? I answer this question with a model of college linked to a Ben-Porath human capital problem. The model is estimated from data on college attainment rates and life-cycle income profiles, which I document by education level. I find that lifetime earnings inequality within cohorts has risen significantly since the 1970s, but little of this is directly attributable to the college premium. Neither is higher tuition particularly important. Increasing earnings risk seems to be the main driver, with higher college return dispersion a contributing factor.
Date: 2026
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