Trends in Competition in the United States: What Does the Evidence Show?

Carl Shapiro and Ali Yurukoglu

Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics, 2026, vol. 4, issue 1, 316 - 370

Abstract: Has the US economy become less competitive in recent decades? One might think so, based on a body of research that has rapidly become influential for antitrust policy. We explain that the empirical evidence relating to concentration, markups, and mergers does not show a widespread decline in competition. Nor does it provide a basis for dramatic changes in antitrust policy. To the contrary, the evidence indicates that many of the trends are likely to reflect competition in action. We identify opportunities for future research in the cross-industry evidence-at-scale paradigm, the industry-specific study paradigm, and their intersection.

Date: 2026
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