Dart Board Budgeting: Dealing with Volatile State Tax Collections

Andy Shin, Kil Huh, Jonathan Ball and Charles Steindel

Municipal Finance Journal, 2015, vol. 36, issue 3, 69 - 104

Abstract: The Great Recession has illustrated how volatile state tax revenues can directly affect the magnitude of state budget shortfalls, with severe consequences in some cases. These consequences might include major structural deficits and credit downgrades. However, some states, despite inherently volatile tax structures, have shown resiliency during the recession by implementing effective policies and practices. This article explores the causes and impact of forecasting errors on state budgets and also discusses best practices for effectively managing the volatility.

Date: 2015
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