Putting the Paycheck Protection Program into Perspective: An Analysis Using Administrative and Survey Data

Michael Dalton

National Tax Journal, 2023, vol. 76, issue 2, 393 - 437

Abstract: After matching more than 3 million loans from the $669 billion Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to administrative wage records, I estimate a dynamic difference-in-difference event study showing robust impacts of the loans on employment, wages, and opening status of establishments 15 months after PPP approval. Between $12,000 and $19,000 of PPP loans are spent per employee-month retained 15 months postapproval, with 43 percent of the PPP going toward wage retention in the baseline model. The smallest employers show the largest impact, explaining disparate results from prior papers focusing on larger employers. Properly accounting for closures is key to understanding the PPP’s long-term impact.

Date: 2023
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