Which Medicaid Recipients Might Be Eligible for SSI?

Michael Levere and David Wittenburg

National Tax Journal, 2026, vol. 79, issue 2, 363 - 392

Abstract: Though safety net programs offer important benefits, take-up is often incomplete. Using machine learning models on Medicaid data, we estimate the take-up rate for children’s Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and the characteristics of potentially eligible children with disabilities who do not receive benefits. Using more than 1,000 measures of health-care utilization, we estimate state-specific models that generate the probability that each child not receiving SSI is eligible. Using the expected number of potentially eligible children, the implied take-up of SSI is approximately 70 percent. Potentially eligible children have intensive health-care usage, often more intensive than current child SSI recipients.

Date: 2026
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