Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment in Japan: An Analysis Using Nonstationary Time-Series Data

Daisuke Mori

Supreme Court Economic Review, 2020, vol. 28, issue 1, 61 - 116

Abstract: In this study, I statistically analyze the deterrent effect of capital punishment in Japan. I first introduce three relatively lesser-known prior studies. The studies have several common limitations: first, in sample size; second, in the econometric methodology (serial correlation, multicollinearity, simultaneity bias, and nonstationary data); and, third, in variable selection. I conduct new analyses to address these problems. In this study, the vector error correction model is adopted to analyze data from 1948 to 2018 with a sample size twice as large as the one used in prior studies. I include both the death sentence rate and the execution rate, analyze homicide and robbery-homicide separately, and use the conviction rate and the life sentence rate to measure the marginal effect of capital punishment. I find that neither the death sentence rate nor the execution rate has a statistically significant effect on the homicide and robbery-homicide rates, whereas the life sentence rate has a significant negative effect on the robbery-homicide rate.

Date: 2020
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