The impact of exchange rate uncertainty on exports: a panel VAR analysis

Leonel Muinelo-Gallo, Ronald Miranda and Gabriela Mordecki

Estudios de Economia, 2020, vol. 47, issue 2 Year 2020, 157-192

Abstract: In this paper we analyze the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on export flows among a panel of 27 countries throughout the 1994/01-2014/12 period. In order to do this, we apply a panel vector autoregressive model approach. By dividing the panel into two subgroups that involve manufacturing-exporting and commodity-exporting economies, we observe a different effect of exchange rate uncertainty on exports. This has a negative impact in manufacturing-exporting countries, but does not affect commodity-exporting countries. This result appears to be explained by countries' economics characteristics, involving the flexibility or rigidities of the export adjustment arising exchange rate uncertainty.

Keywords: Exchange rate uncertainty; exports; panel vector autoregressive; manufacture-exporting economies; commodity-exporting economies. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 F31 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:udc:esteco:v:47:y:2020:i:2:p:157-192

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