Variasi Kadar Pertukaran Matawang dan Harga Minyak Sawit

Mohammad Haji Alias, Shri Subramaniam and Anizah Ali
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Mohammad Haji Alias: Fakulti Ekonomi Universiti Utara Malaysia Sintok, Kedah Darul Aman
Shri Subramaniam: Fakulti Ekonomi Universiti Utara Malaysia Sintok, Kedah Darul Aman
Anizah Ali: Fakulti Ekonomi Universiti Utara Malaysia Sintok, Kedah Darul Aman

Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 2006, vol. 40, 3-25

Abstract: The article reports the result of an empirical investigation on the impact of variations of exchange rate on the key endogenous variables of the Malaysian palm oil industry, in particular palm oil price and domestic consumption. A structural econometric model representing the industry ha been specified. The specified model falls within the family of commodity models such as in Muhammad et al. (2001 a,b), Mad nasir et al.(1997) and muhamed (1998). Annual time-series data from 1970-1999 are used for the estimation. Non-linear Two Stage Least Squares(2sls) estimation method was used in the estimation. The main research questions investigated are as follows. Firstly, in what why does a disturbance in the foreign currency market impact on the price of palm oil? Secondly, what is the exposure of the plantation (which includes the palm oil sub-sector) to exchange rate risks? A counterfactual analysis has been carried out to investigate the impact of depreciation in the Ringgiton the key endogenous variables of the Malaysian palm oil industry. Ten percent depreciation in the exchange rate gives a negative impact on domestic consumption, albeit a small one estimated at only 1.22 percent

Date: 2006
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