Perubahan Makroekonomi, Persaingan Harga Barang Pengganti dan Eksport Sawit Malaysia

Mohd Asri, ‘Abdullah Khairi (), Aisyah Rahman () and Hawati Janor ()
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Mohd Asri, ‘Abdullah Khairi: Faculty of Economics and Management National University of Malaysia 43600 Bangi, Selangor MALAYSIA Kolej Teknologi Darulnaim Cawangan Kuala Lumpur D-03-2 Jalan Medan Pusat Bandar 5 Seksyen 9 Bandar Baru Bangi 43650 Bandar Baru Bangi Selangor MALAYSIA
Aisyah Rahman: Faculty of Economics and Management National University of Malaysia 43600 Bangi, Selangor MALAYSIA Institut Islam Hadhari National University of Malaysia 43600 Bangi, Selangor MALAYSIA
Hawati Janor: Faculty of Economics and Management National University of Malaysia 43600 Bangi, Selangor MALAYSIA

Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 2020, vol. 54, issue 1, 193-211

Abstract: Malaysia is one of the world leaders in palm oil production. The study investigates the effects of selected macroeconomic variables and price competition on the major palm oil export products, which are the crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel oil (PKO). The macroeconomic variables include local and world palm oil prices, palm oil production and real effective exchange rates. Meanwhile, price competition includes the price of substitute products for palm oil such as soybean oil, canola oil, sunflower oil and coconut oil. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method is employed in examining the short and long run relationship among the variables for the sample spanning from year 1985 to 2016. The study provides empirical evidence that local palm oil prices, exchange rates, and prices of substitute products strongly influence Malaysian palm oil exports. Thus, initiatives toward increasing Malaysian palm oil exports should consider the stability of local palm oil prices, foreign exchange rates and prices of the substitute products to retain competitive advantage of Malaysian palm oil export. In addition, the evidence on the inverse impact of the Asian 1997/1998 and Eropean 2007/2008 crises on palm oil export suggests that Malaysia should be cautious of the Asian and global crisis signals.

Keywords: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL); Crude palm oil; palm kernel oil; price competition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ukm:jlekon:v:54:y:2020:i:1:p:193-211

DOI: 10.17576/JEM-2020-5401-14

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