Asymetries and causalities between public revenues and expenditures in Brazil

Assimetrias e causalidades entre receitas de despesas públicas no Brasil

Benito Adelmo Salomão Neto () and Cleomar Gomes Da Silva

Estudios Economicos, 2023, vol. 040 (Nueva Serie), issue 80, 191-221

Abstract: This article analyzes the Brazilian fiscal policy between January/2003 and December/2018, seeking to fit it into one of four classic characteristics: tax-spend, spend-tax, fiscal synchronization and fiscal neutrality, in addition to analyzing the country´s revenues and expenditures, and asymmetries and causalities. By using Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models with cointegration, the results show cointegration between total revenues and expenses, also disaggregated into mandatory and discretionary expenses. Also, fiscal policy in Brazil is a “spend-tax” type, for the relationship between revenues, total and mandatory expenditures, and “tax-spend” for the relationship revenues-discretionary expenditures. Asymmetry is found in the relationship between total and mandatory expenditures, which grow together with GDP and revenue growth, but do not fall in recessions. Decreases in revenues lead to reductions in discretionary expenditures, which works by adjusting the short run budget, making le

Keywords: fiscal policy; NARDL; dynamic multipliers; regressive model; política fiscal; NARDL; multiplicadores dinâmicos; modelo de regressão (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 H2 H5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:uns:esteco:v:40:y:2023:i:80:p:191-221

DOI: 10.52292/j.estudecon.2023.2758

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