Improving the Adequacy of Economic Models

Yury B. Melnikov, Yelena A. Onokhina and Sergey A. Shitikov
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Yury B. Melnikov: Ural State University of Economics
Yelena A. Onokhina: Ural State University of Economics
Sergey A. Shitikov: Ural State University of Economics

Journal of New Economy, 2018, vol. 19, issue 1, 94-106

Abstract: The research aims to identify all possible avenues for improving the adequacy of models, which is regarded as one of the indicators of the quality of a model. Methodologically, the research relies on the theory of adequacy, which is a part of the authors’ theory of modeling based on the formal construc? tive interpretation of the model. To solve the problem of improving the adequacy, the authors suggest considering the model of adequacy, which consists of pairs of a kind (the model being evaluated and the reference model). On this set, the authors determine the characteristics of adequacy, i.e. functions, the values of which allow assessing the quality of the model being evaluated by comparison with the refer? ence model. In the authors’ opinion, the model of adequacy must satisfy five postulates listed in the paper. On the basis of these postulates the authors deduced all possible ways of evolutionary improvement of the adequacy of models. To exemplify these recommendations, the authors applied them to improve the adequacy of a model for forecasting tax revenues, as well as some other economic models. The presented research is of theoretical nature, for this reason the examples are descriptive.

Keywords: model; economic modeling; adequacy of economic model; improvement of adequacy; quality of economic models. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C02 H21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:url:izvest:v:19:y:2018:i:1:p:94-106

DOI: 10.29141/2073-1019-2018-19-1-8

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