 You can smuggle but you can't hide: Sanction evasion during the Ukraine crisisPiotr Lukaszuk () Aussenwirtschaft, 2021, vol. 71, issue 01, 73-125 Abstract: This paper investigates whether sanctions imposed in the wake of the Ukraine crisis by Western countries and Russia have been evaded by analyzing monthly product-level trade patterns. Consolidating different methods from the literature related to the detection of illicit trade, I find that goods facing sanctions imposed by the Russian government in particular have most likely been evaded. While the detected amounts do not question the general effectiveness of the sanctions, they are non-negligible. Roughly US$482 million, or 8.56% of the total estimated trade loss of $5.633 billion from the Russian sanctions, may have been smuggled either directly or through its neighboring countries. As more than half of the estimated evasion involves trade flows through Belarus and Kazakhstan, the findings highlight the importance of trade policy coordination with third countries, especially if these are part of the same customs union. Keywords: sanctions; embargo; smuggling; evasion; foreign policy (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:usg:auswrt:2021:71:01:73-125 Access Statistics for this article More articles in Aussenwirtschaft from University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research Contact information at EDIRC. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.