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COMPREHENSIVE MACRO � MODEL FOR THE US ECONOMY

Ivan Kitov (), Oleg Kitov () and Svetlana A. Dolinskaya

Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 2008, vol. 3, issue 4(6)_Winter2008

Abstract: We present a comprehensive macroeconomic model for the US There exist strict long�term relations between real GDP, price inflation, labor force participation, productivity, and unemployment. The evolution of real GDP depends only on exogenous demographic forces. Other macro�variables follow up the real GDP. The links between the variables have been valid during the last several decades. All relations were (successfully) tested for cointegration. Statistical estimates are also presented. The relationships allow a reliable prediction of the macroeconomic state at very large (more than 9 years) time horizons.

Keywords: US economy; GDP; inflation; unemployment; labor force; productivity; demography (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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