 CARRY TRADE FUNDAMENTALS AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS 2007-2010Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 2009, vol. 4, issue 2(8)_ Summer 2009 Abstract: This paper takes the form of an event study surrounding the current financial crisis. It proposes a theoretical relationship which can be used to model traditional carry trade crosses on a daily return basis as a negative function of equity returns and a positive function of market volatility. In order to test this theory, an Arbitrage Pricing Theory framework is adopted which is used to estimate the factor betas of carry trade crosses with respect to equity returns and market volatility. It is shown how the variation in the currency crosses explained by the functional relationship as well as the estimated factor betas have increased significantly in relation to the financial crisis. The results indicate that low yielding currencies (the JPY and CHF) can be successfully modelled as a negative function of equity returns and a positive function of volatility in the market. The results furthermore underpin studies that have shown how carry trading activity is highly sensitive towards sudden sparks of volatility and risk aversion, and thus how carry trade fundamentals are time varying. Keywords: International finance; carry trading; financial crisis; currencies (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:4:y:2009:i:2(8)_summer2009:68 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Applied Economic Sciences is currently edited by Laura Stefanescu More articles in Journal of Applied Economic Sciences from Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova Contact information at EDIRC. |
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