The current state of the theory of cycles

Vittorio Marrama
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Vittorio Marrama: full professor of Economics, University of Siena

Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, 2013, vol. 121, issue 3-4, 373-386

Abstract: The article offers a review of modern business cycle theory as developed in the first half of XX century. Marrama analyses the extent of economic literature on these topics, pinpointing the main strands of thought and tools used by business cycle economists. The categorization is set forth according to the different methods adopted. Three of these categories are considered as the most important for understanding the current state of business cycle theory: cyclical aggregative models (using a deductive method only); econometrical aggregative models (deductive and inductive method); empirical researches (inductive method only). The A. shows how the increasing dissatisfaction both with the theoretical models formulated by post-keynesian economists and with empirical research on innumerable particular cycles as provided by the NBER group, was leading to a new synthesis centering on the building up of econometric models.

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Microeconomics; Cycles and Taxonomy; Econometrics, Moses Abramovitz; Arthur C. Burns; Gottfried Haberler; Roy Harrod; John Hicks; Lawrence Klein; Tjalling Koopmans; Wesley C. Mitchell; Jan Tinbergen (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B23 C18 E12 E30 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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