Population and Employment in Southern Italy: a Look to the Future

Marcantonio Caltabiano ()
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Marcantonio Caltabiano: Department of Economics – University of Messina

Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, 2025, vol. 133, issue 4, 357-374

Abstract: Southern Italy has been characterized in recent decades by a reduction in the number of young people, and according to the most recent ISTAT forecast this decline will be more significant in the coming decades. The consequence of this trend will be a reduction in the working age population and in the number of employed people. However, this outcome is not inevitable, because in southern Italy there is a high number of individuals who are unemployed or out of the labor force. In this paper, we show on the one hand how a convergence of employment rates to the European Union average over the next fifteen years can compensate for the missing workers, while also revitalizing the economy. However, on the other hand, if this last opportunity is missed, the consequences may lead to further depopulation and impoverishment, distancing southern Italy even more from the rest of the country.

Keywords: Italy; Fertility; Population forecasts; Working age population (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J13 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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