MODELLING AND PREDICTING THE INDIRECT TAXES IN ROMANIA

Mihaela Simionescu

Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), 2015, vol. 19, issue 2, 67-77

Abstract: The main aim of this study is to model and predict the quarterly indirect taxes in Romania. This variable provides important information for the standard levelling in a country. for data covering the period from 2004:Q1 to 2014:Q2, some econometric models were proposed (multiple regression model, trend model and a vector-autoregression-VAR model. 45.52% of the variation in differentiated data series of logarithmic indirect taxes is explained by GDP and share of social assurance. According to Granger causality test for stationary data, at 5% level of significance the GDP index evolution is a cause for the indirect tax. In the first period almost 97.08% of the variation in indirect taxes is due to the changes in the values of this variable while only 2.923% of its variation is determined by the changes in GDP index. For the first 10 periods, the influence of GDP index does not exceed 3%. For the first quarter of 2014, the trend model provided the best prediction while for the second one the VAR process performed the best. For the next quarters of 2014 all the models predicted a decrease in indirect taxes in Romania.

Keywords: indirect taxes; forecasts; trend; VAR model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C53 H20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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